AGI & Singularity
AGI & Singularity
Scaling laws, timelines, recursive self-improvement, the takeoff debate.
State of the world · updated June 2026
Right now: scaling curves have not visibly bent, which keeps the takeoff camp confident; sceptics point to missing pieces in reasoning and grounding. Benchmarks are saturating across the board.
Watch: evidence on recursive self-improvement, new benchmarks aimed at unsolved science, and whether forecaster timelines keep pulling forward.
Start here · the primer
Less a topic than an argument. One camp reads the scaling curves and sees takeoff; another sees a plateau and missing pieces. Watch what the curves actually do, not the rhetoric.