The halfway line that isn't

By the end of 2025, renewable plants accounted for 49.4% of all the electricity-generation capacity bolted onto the world's grids, up from roughly 46% a year earlier. A record 692 gigawatts went in during the year, and three of every four new units were solar panels. On paper, the planet is at the halfway mark.

In the same year renewables crossed the halfway line, fossil buildout rebounded: China alone added around 100 GW of mostly coal, and renewables' share of new capacity actually fell from 92.5% to 85.6%.

The catch is what "capacity" measures: it is the hardware that could in theory run at once, not the power that flows. A solar farm sits idle at night; a wind turbine waits for wind. Counted by actual electricity generated, renewables supplied about 32% in 2024 — half the installed machinery, a third of the electrons. The 49% is real, but it is a measure of what has been built, not what is delivered.

Buried under the record is the more telling number. The renewable share of all new capacity added actually fell, from 92.5% in 2024 to 85.6%, because non-renewable additions nearly doubled — China alone put in around 100 GW of mostly coal. The same year renewables crossed the capacity halfway line, fossil buildout quietly rebounded. The milestone and the coal are the same year's data.